TrendForce：美国超一半待建超大规模数据中心产能面临高监管风险

Data centers were one of the defining issues of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, and the results are set to shape how the buildout unfolds over the next few years. In three key data center states, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio, voters elected governors who campaigned on pausing or tightening data center development.

Following the elections, TrendForce believes state-level data center policy is likely to shift toward stricter constraints and, in some cases, statewide moratoria. A significant share of U.S. hyperscaler capacity that has yet to break ground sits in states now facing elevated regulatory risk, with Texas holding the largest share.

Most capacity slated for 2027 is already under construction, so the delay risk falls mainly on projects planned for 2028 and beyond. The new governors take office in January, and it remains to be seen how fully they follow through on their pledges.

The elections come amid a broader shift in state data center policy over the past two years. The growth promised by the AI infrastructure boom has increasingly come into conflict with local communities. In the U.S., opposition to data center development has spread from local town halls to state capitols.

The pushback plays out on three fronts: a bipartisan political backlash, permitting and approval bottlenecks that can stall projects regardless of federal or state support, and local residents’ concerns over rising electricity rates and environmental issues.

Just two years ago, data center construction was largely outside the American political consciousness. Most states were keen to attract hyperscalers, layering on tax incentives to encourage the buildout. Today, the situation has reversed sharply. Many of these incentives have been rolled back, and more data center-related bills were introduced in the first four months of 2026 than in all of 2024 and 2025 combined. During the same period, states introduced 33 bills to restrict or repeal data center tax breaks or impose new taxes, already more than in all of 2025. The legislative focus has shifted from attracting data centers to limiting where and how they can be built.

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TrendForce has updated its state-by-state regulatory risk map to reflect the election results. Texas and Georgia have been raised to severe risk, and Wisconsin to high risk, given the significant chance of a moratorium or pause. Oregon has also been raised to severe risk following Governor Tina Kotek’s statewide pause on data center permits.

The scores reflect only the regulatory risk attributable to the 2026 election cycle: actions taken before the election and policies the winners are likely to deliver by Q2 2027. They exclude laws passed before this cycle, as well as county and municipal moratoria, so states such as Virginia still face significant regulatory pressure through other channels.

For paid subscribers, we take a closer look at what the results mean for Texas, Georgia, and Ohio. We also break down how much hyperscaler capacity is exposed and how hyperscalers are likely to respond.