Nobel laureate economist Acemoglu publishes a downbeat AI prediction
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In October 2026, Microsoft published Nobel laureate in economics Daron Acemoglu's pessimistic AI predictions on its corporate blog, The Humanist Review of AI. According to The Decoder, Acemoglu believes AI will drive only about 1.5% GDP growth over the next decade and replace at most 5% of jobs, an estimate far below the optimistic forecasts of some AI labs. This is the only report on the event so far, with no further information on follow-up developments or responses from other parties.
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- The DecoderMicrosoft publishes Nobel economist's bearish AI forecast of just 1.5% GDP growth over a decade
Microsoft has published, on its corporate blog The Humanist Review of AI, a cautious AI forecast from Nobel laureate economist Daron Acemoglu: AI will drive only about 1.5% GDP growth over ten years and displace at most 5% of jobs, far below some AI labs' projections.