Matthew Green Warns AI Could Undermine Trust in Public-Key Encryption
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On October 9, 2026, Simon Willison reported on cryptographer Matthew Green's warning. Green made two probabilistic judgments: first, there is a 1% chance we actually live in a "Minicrypt" world where public-key cryptography is fundamentally impossible; second, there is a 15% chance we will lose confidence in existing public-key cryptography algorithms. He argues that AI creates surprises far faster than humans (even with AI assistance) can replace cryptographic standards, so only by preparing in advance can recovery be possible when such surprises occur. The report currently only contains Green's statement, with no follow-up developments or responses from other parties.
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- Simon WillisonQuoting Matthew Green
Cryptographer Matthew Green argues there is a 1% chance we live in a 'Minicrypt' world where public-key cryptography is fundamentally impossible, and a 15% chance we will actually lose confidence in existing public-key algorithms. He notes AI creates surprises far faster than humans (even AI-assisted) can replace standards, and only advance preparation enables recovery from such surprises.
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