Import AI 459: AI oversight is difficult; scaling laws for protein folding models; and pricing the extinction risk of AI systems

Import AI issue 459 reports: researchers from the University of Virginia, Anthropic, and the Bank of Canada estimate the US AI economy at roughly $250 billion nominal in 2025, with quality-adjusted real output growing about 2,600% a year, yet hard to see in GDP because of falling prices and the high share of inference. The UK AI Security Institute argues that using AI to oversee training processes to automate alignment research is not a panacea and is harder in practice than expected.